11-15-10 – Corn Market Recap Report
December corn rallied sharply today, although closing levels were well short of the day’s highs. Old crop contracts posted a big gain on the December 2011 contract with the December 2010 corn also posting a sharp gain on wheat. Funds were buyers along with spreaders on a day that saw the December contract briefly trade above Friday’s high. Trade talk between China and Argentina continued today, fueling talk that China may buy several million tonnes of corn from Argentina. However, some analysts had suggested earlier today that it could take up to 2 years to lay the groundwork for large sales. Argentine officials were scheduled to meet with importers today regarding corn export permits, but a source said that China was not on the agenda. The USDA announced two export sales in corn this morning. One sale was for 281,000 tonnes of corn to South Korea and the other was for 120,000 tonnes to Egypt. Both were for delivery during the 2010/11 crop marketing year. Talk that end users in China can buy just 15 days of usage when bidding on weekly auctions of China reserve corn helped to support the market as well. This week’s export inspections for corn were 25.9 million bushels, down from 32.2 million last week. Inspections need to average 38.2 million bushels each week to reach the USDA’s latest export projection for 2010/11. Cumulative inspections stand at 17.8% of the USDA’s projection versus a 5-year average of 20.4%.
December Corn finished 21 1/2 higher at 555 1/2, 16 1/2 up from the low and 11 1/2 off the high. March Corn closed up 21 at 569. This was 11 off the high and 16 1/2 up from the low.
January Ricefinished down 0.295 at 13.775, 0.425 up from the low and equal to the high.
Wheat Market Review Report for 11-15-10
December wheat posted slight gains today as late selling erased most of the early gains. Traders credited the strength to buying in soybeans and cornalong with dry conditions in parts of the winter wheat belt in the US and an export sales announcement from the USDA this morning. However, a higher dollar was credited with keeping a lid on prices along with selling by spreaders versus corn. Corn posted a sharp gain on wheat in the December contract. The USDA announced a sale of 100,000 tonnes of US hard red winter wheat to Iraq this morning. This week’s export inspections for wheat were 15.3 million bushels, down from 19.2 million last week. Inspections need to average 25.7 million bushels each week to reach the USDA’s current export projection. Cumulative inspections stand at 40.5% of the USDA’s projection versus a 5-year average of 48.7.
December Wheat finished 3 1/2 higher at 672 3/4, 12 1/4 off the high and 5 1/4 up from the low. March Wheat settled up 3 at 712 1/2. This was 12 off the high and 5 up from the low.
December Oats ended up 7 at 346 1/2. This was 6 1/4 off the high and 9 up from the low .
Soybean Complex Market Recap for 11-15-10
January Soybeans ended up 17 1/2 at 1286 1/2, 34 1/4 up from the low and 21 off the high. March Soybeans closed 16 3/4 higher at 1293 3/4. This was 20 3/4 off the high and 33 3/4 up from the low.
December Soymeal closed 8.4 higher at 348.1. This was 12.4 up from the low and 4.2 off the high. December Soybean Oil settled 0.06 lower at 52.47, 0.85 off the high and 1.21 up from the low.
January soybeans posted substantial gains today, reversing a portion of Friday’s limit loss. This came amid moderate buying by funds in soybeans. Meal gained sharply on soy oil which failed to maintain gains posted into mid morning. Traders said that outside markets were a generally positive influence this morning along with a somewhat more positive economic outlook in the US this morning and announcements by the USDA of sales of soybeans and soy oil this morning. The USDA said that 105,000 tonnes of soybeans were sold to an unknown destination, 55,000 tonnes of which was for delivery in 2010/11 with the remaining 50,000 for delivery in 2011/12. They also announced that 20,000 tonnes of soy oil were sold to an unknown destination for delivery during 2010/11. This week’s export inspections for soybeans were 55.5 million bushels, down from 60.7 million last week. Inspections need to average 26.8 million bushels each week to reach the USDA’s current export projection. The National Oilseed Processors’ Association reported its monthly crush for October at 151.8 million bushels this morning. This was more than 4 million bushels above trade expectations, and it compares to 124.917 million in September, 2010 and 155.3 million in October, 2009. NOPA pegged end of month soy oil stocks at 2.821 billion bushels.
After reading today’s review,traders might want to take a peek at the commercial traders momentum. The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Traders reports. Our idea is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows fair value like the people who produce it or, have to use it. In fact, it is precisely their sense of value that provides the commodity market’s rhythmic meanderings that swing traders love so much. Let’s face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices. Therefore, trader should be able to incorporate this valuable information into their futures market education.
The daily commentaries provide an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, a recap of any reports released that day, a rundown of each commodity’s traded price activity, and a look ahead at the schedule for the next day. CME Group provides market commentaries for soybeans, corn, wheat, silver and gold. The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
This blog is circulated by Andy Waldock. Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, asset manager, trader, analyst and brokerfor Commodity & Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio. For that reason, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his relatives, or his clients in any commodity future market reviewed. The blog is meant to develop a discussion and educate those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets may not be suitable for all investors due to the high degree of leverage. Investing in the commodity futures could result in considerable risk. If you are interested in reading other circulated articles, commenting on his writings or subscribing to Andy’s blog, please visit http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com, or if you have any questions, please call 1-866-990-0777.